Post-production forecast of tinplate import and export
At present, most exporters receive orders until June, but contrary to the phenomenon of “explosive orders” in full swing, traders are facing a dilemma:
On the one hand, export costs want to be “high without capping”. Under the premise that the price difference between domestic and foreign tin plate is limited, while the domestic ex-factory price of tin plate fluctuates and rises, factors such as the tight supply of ships and containers have led to rising sea freight. Export profits have been greatly compressed. On the other hand, macroeconomic policies increase the risk of steel exports. Domestic hot news, carbon neutrality, environmental protection and production restrictions, etc., are all good for steel prices. Steel prices are “easy to rise but difficult to fall”. In addition, export tax rebates have not yet been implemented, and speculation has increased market panic. mood. For the above reasons, the current state of mind of export traders is generally confused and panic. Due to cost considerations, both importers and exporters may make transactions cautiously. It is expected that export orders from June onwards may decrease compared with the same period last year.
On the whole, the positive international situation in the short and medium term will continue to maintain the fundamentals of Chinese steel exports. After the second quarter, opportunities and challenges will coexist in the import and export of tinplate. How the export tax rebate policy will be implemented or play a key role, it should be more cautious and wait-and-see now.